{"product_id":"expert-political-judgment-philip-tetlock-0691175977","title":"Juicio político experto: ¿Qué tan bueno es? ¿Cómo podemos saberlo? - Nueva edición","description":"\u003ch2\u003eWhat is 'Expert Political Judgment'?\u003c\/h2\u003e\u003cp\u003eThis book, written by psychologist Philip E. Tetlock, examines the reliability of forecasts made by experts in politics and international relations. Through decades of research, Tetlock argues that many experts do not achieve accuracy superior to chance, and explores the reasons behind this phenomenon. The work invites reflection on how expert judgments are formed and how we can critically evaluate them.\u003c\/p\u003e\u003ch2\u003eThe importance of expert judgment in decision-making\u003c\/h2\u003e\u003cp\u003eIn a world where political and economic decisions depend on predictions, understanding the limits of expert knowledge is essential. Tetlock introduces key concepts such as the 'hedgehog' (expert who applies a single grand theory) and the 'fox' (expert who uses multiple perspectives), demonstrating that the latter tend to be more accurate. This work has become a reference in social psychology and political science, offering tools to identify when an expert deserves trust.\u003c\/p\u003e\u003ch2\u003eStructure and methodology of the book\u003c\/h2\u003e\u003cp\u003eThe new edition includes an updated preface by the author. The book combines empirical data, statistical analysis, and historical examples. Tetlock presents his famous studies: over 20 years, he collected more than 80,000 forecasts from 300 experts in various fields. The result is a rigorous analysis of the nature of expertise and cognitive biases. Readers will find clear explanations of how the experiments were designed and what was extracted.\u003c\/p\u003e\u003ch2\u003eKey concepts: the hedgehog and the fox\u003c\/h2\u003e\u003cp\u003eOne of the most influential concepts in the book is the distinction between 'hedgehogs' and 'foxes'. Hedgehogs know one big idea and apply it to everything, while foxes use multiple approaches. Tetlock shows that foxes tend to make more accurate forecasts, as they are more humble and open to correction. This finding has implications not only for politics but for any field where expert judgments are made.\u003c\/p\u003e\u003ch2\u003eCurrent relevance and applications\u003c\/h2\u003e\u003cp\u003eIn a context of global uncertainty, Tetlock's lessons are more relevant than ever. The book has influenced areas such as intelligence, behavioral economics, and strategic decision-making. Organizations like the CIA and the U.S. Department of Defense have used his ideas to improve their prediction processes. This work is essential reading for those seeking to understand the limits and possibilities of expert knowledge.\u003c\/p\u003e\u003ch2\u003eReviews and reception\u003c\/h2\u003e\u003cp\u003eSince its publication, 'Expert Political Judgment' has received praise from specialized critics. It has been described as a classic in political psychology and has won several academic awards. Its interdisciplinary approach makes it valuable for both students and professionals. The new edition includes updated reflections from the author, making it an even more comprehensive reference.\u003c\/p\u003e\u003ch2\u003eFrequently asked questions\u003c\/h2\u003e\u003ch3\u003eIs prior training in psychology necessary?\u003c\/h3\u003e\u003cp\u003eNo. Although it contains technical data, Tetlock writes in an accessible way for the general public. Concepts are explained clearly and illustrated with everyday examples.\u003c\/p\u003e\u003ch3\u003eWhat is the difference between this new edition and the previous one?\u003c\/h3\u003e\u003cp\u003eThis edition includes a new preface where Tetlock reflects on the evolution of his research and the criticisms received, offering an updated perspective.\u003c\/p\u003e","brand":"Princeton University Press","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":48758593028250,"sku":null,"price":40.85,"currency_code":"EUR","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0761\/4831\/0170\/files\/61TxBb8P8KL._SL1360.jpg?v=1784300022","url":"https:\/\/vitaminaspain.es\/es\/products\/expert-political-judgment-philip-tetlock-0691175977","provider":"vitaminaspain","version":"1.0","type":"link"}